Dr Farid El-Husseini

Director

FEH Media Insight

M. +44 (0) 7969 264 360

T. +44 (0) 117 330 4773

E. farid.el-husseini@feh-mi.com


FEH Media Insight Total TV Forecast Hits Mark Second Year Running

06/03/17

In early 2015 Dr Farid El-Husseini produced a forecast of annual Total TV viewing levels in the UK through to 2020. The forecast was featured in his February 2015 blog where he noted that 2015 was likely to be: “another tough year for television, with the Individuals 4+ Total TV audience predicted to fall to 8.78 million in 2015 (-2.0%)”. In the event, the actual 2015 Total TV audience in the UK was 8.75 million, which is within 0.3% of the forecast.

 

For subsequent years Farid’s forecast provided a range of outcomes to reflect the greater uncertainty associated with predicting TV viewing over a longer timeframe. It predicted that the Individuals 4+ Total TV audience in 2016 was likely to be somewhere between 8.62 and 8.81 million, with the average of the two (i.e. the mid-range forecast) being 8.72 million, thus suggesting a probable mitigation of the downward pressure on TV viewing levels from previous years. In the event, the actual 2016 Total TV audience in the UK was 8.70 million, which is within 0.2% of the mid-range forecast.